Futures Slide As Oil Jumps, Bond Selloff Resumes After Trump Spurns Iran Offer US futures are lower with Tech underperforming, alongside a drop in treasuries, as fading hopes for an imminent breakthrough in the Iran war sent oil prices higher and reignited worries that inflation is heating up. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures are down around 0.5% with Nasdaq futures sliding by 0.8% as semis and memory stocks underpeform the group. Defensives are leading cyclicals with credit cards, defense, energy, insurance, and restaurants acting as pockets of strength. Oil is sharply higher after Iran stuck to its seven-day proposal for reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz, saying it won’t soften its conditions, while Donald Trump sent mixed signals about his willingness to reach a deal. He told Axios that Tehran has overplayed its hand but added that he expects negotiations to resume this week. Adding to tensions, UK police are investigating a potential terror plot after five men were arrested near an air base used in US strikes against Iran. The jump in oil has puled bond yields 4-7 bps higher as the curve flattens, the 10Y trading at 5.21% after hitting a new multi-decade high of 5.23% earlier. The DXY dollar index is higher despite weakness in USD/JPY and GBP/USD. Commodities are mixed with energy leading, metals under pressure dragged by precious which appears to be driven by temporary higher margin requirements in China for Golden Week; ags are lower. More than a dozen Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week beginning Monday, and heavy US economic slate includes September employment report Friday. Today's US economic data slate includes only September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30 a.m. Fed speakers include Bowman (8:15 a.m.), Cook (1:25 p.m.) and Barkin (1:30 p.m.). In premarket, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Nvidia (NVDA) climbs 0.9% after its board authorized an additional $150 billion under the company’s existing share repurchase program, increasing the total remaining amount authorized to $235 billion (Meta Platforms (META) -2.5%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -1%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.5%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.5%, Apple (AAPL) -0.3%) Precious metals miners are broadly lower, following a drop in gold and silver prices as persistent tensions in the Middle East push up government bond yields and dent the appeal of non-yielding metals. Shares of oil majors rise. Kodiak Sciences (KOD) jumps 66% after saying the company has met key endpoints for both Zenkuda and tabirafusp-ted in the Phase 3 study in patients with wet age-related macular degeneration. NetEase ADRs (NTES) rise 4% after Morgan Stanley names it top pick among peers, expecting the firm’s new Ananta game to become a blockbuster launch and a core growth driver next year. SK Hynix ADRs (SKHY) drop 3% as reports of subsidiary Solidigm’s IPO plans trigger concerns over the rationale behind the move. Snowflake (SNOW), a maker of software that helps organize and analyze corporate data in the cloud, falls 4% as the company intends to offer $3.5 billion of convertible senior notes. Teleflex (TFX) inches 1.4% higher after BofA Global Research upgraded the medical device supplier to buy, citing upside to earnings. In other corporate news, Boeing identified an issue with the 737 Max jet’s navigation system that could increase pilot workload during landing and may delay the arrival of its latest narrowbody models. ExxonMobil agreed to pump oil and natural gas from Azerbaijan’s shale fields as the Texas energy giant takes its fracking expertise overseas. McDonald’s faces a key challenge in winning back the cost-conscious diners who believe its menu has become too expensive. Investors are navigating geopolitical risks and growing price pressures even as corporate profitability remains robust and major economies show resilience. For now, oil is keeping bond yields near multi-year highs, with the pressure from rates feeding through to other asset classes. Stock futures are lower after a weekend of largely negative Middle East headlines revived inflation worries. In big AI news this morning, Nvidia introduced a new double-layered AI security system designed to stop AI agents from going awry; this was followed by an announcement of a $150 billion stock buybacks, the biggest in history; the news sent the stock in the green after sliding earlier. Oil is rising again after Iran said it won’t soften its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump sent mixed messages about reaching a deal. “A lot is moving against equities at the moment: oil is on the rise and bond yields are going through the roof,” said Laurent Lamagnere at AlphaValue. “It’s quite hard for me to be optimistic.” The recent spike in yields means that month-end reallocations by balanced US equity-bond funds could weigh on stocks in the near term, according to Christopher Dembik, senior investment adviser at Pictet Asset Management. “Around $25 billion to $30 billion worth of equities are expected to be sold, with the proceeds reinvested in bonds,” Dembik said. “This could put some downward pressure on US large caps over the next few trading sessions.” Nvidia’s new security tools are designed to control what AI agents can access in real time and shut them down when they break the rules. That may calm nerves over the technology following following fresh disclosures about breaches. OpenAI said another agentic AI system that was being trained in what was supposed to be a secured environment was able to gain access to the web to reach a third-party chatbot. Meanwhile, with so much going on - from AI euphoria and fear to geopolitical drama - Bloomberg notes that traders are increasingly looking at dispersion trade opportunities for winners and losers. The trend is likely to continue, with JPMorgan derivatives strategists highlighting that midterms could catalyze single stock volatility. They recommend buying VIX October call spreads, noting that the VIX curve is well below prior midterm setups. Goldman strategists also see potential for more volatility ahead, enabled by narrow market breadth. A measure of S&P 500 breadth has reached the lowest level since the dot-com bubble, they say, with the strength of the AI trade masking broader index weakness. There’s not much on the macro calendar today, but the rest of the week will be busy, with core PCE on Wednesday, ISM’s manufacturing survey on Thursday and payrolls due Friday. Bessent said on Fox News at the weekend that Fed policymakers should keep an “open mind” on interest rates. Elsewhere in tech, SK Hynix is considering a potential US listing of its Solidigm flash data storage subsidy. The Chinese government signaled it may allow companies such as Alibaba and ByteDance to buy Nvidia’s new RTX Pro 5500 chips, The Information reported. And Anthropic CEO was said to meet Trump on Sunday evening, bringing together two men at opposite ends of the AI safety debate. The growing prospect of rate hikes saw gold extend its losses for September to more than 6%. Rising yields have dimmed the allure of the precious metal, which pays no interest. Investors see about a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month, up from about 65% on Friday. In trade news, the US and China detailed a plan to cut tariffs on about $30 billion of imports from each country, following last week’s summit. Trump said he is looking “very seriously” at implementing a US ban on diesel exports to combat high prices. Data due later this week are likely to give investors more reason to worry that price pressures are building. A report on Wednesday is forecast to show a 0.5% increase in August inflation-adjusted personal spending, which would be the biggest advance in just over a year. The release will also include the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Both the personal consumption expenditures price index and the core measure are projected to quicken in August from a month earlier. Friday’s payrolls data will probably show that hiring remained solid. European stocks are resilient in the face of higher energy prices with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2%. In the UK, shares in homebuilders surged after the government announced a loan program to help first-time buyers. Taylor Wimpey Plc rose 12%, while Persimmon Plc rallied 15% and Barratt Redrow Plc advanced 12%. Here are the biggest movers Monday: Shares in UK homebuilders surge after the government announces a loan program to help first-time buyers purchase new-build homes. Taylor Wimpey rises as much as 23%, the steepest gain since May 2009 Suedzucker shares rally as much as 7.9%, the most in six months, after the agri-food business delivered results ahead of expectations and raised its revenue and earnings guidance for the year Dormakaba rises as much as 6.7%, the biggest jump since April 2025, after the security system maker was upgraded at Jefferies. Analysts say the de-rating has gone too far and that the upcoming capital markets day could provide a catalyst Bridgepoint Group shares rise as much as 5.4% after Citi increased its price target on the private equity firm by a fifth, having adjusted its models to reflect the acquisition of US real estate investment platform Kayne Fagron climbs as much as 7.6%, the most since mid-February, as ING Bank lifts its price target on the pharmaceutical company and adds to its Benelux Favourites list Keller Group rises as much as 5.3% as RBC says the ground engineering specialist’s announcement of a $650m contract variation order on the I-40 highway reconstruction project will help to de-risk growth in the US Maire rises as much as 4.5%, the most in a month, as Citi initiates on the Italian engineering group with a buy rating, saying it’s attractively levered to rising global gas investment Irish Residential Properties REIT jumps by 24%, propelling shares to their highest level since 2022, after the firm received takeover offers from Baring International Investment. Shares are still trading below the offer price European gambling companies’ shares slide after Brazil issued a provisional measure on Friday banning all forms of online gambling. Entain said it expects underlying Ebitda to hit the lower-end of its guided range following the ban European miners dropped as copper and other base metals retreated after data showed slower growth in industrial profits in China Danieli shares fall as much as 13%, the most since April 4, after the steel-making-equipment company reported full-year results and issued guidance that Banca Akros described as more prudent than expected Asian stocks fell, with the tech sector leading the losses, as an increase in oil prices spurred concern over inflation and sent bond yields higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5% following a 1.2% gain last week. Chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix were the biggest drags, losing over 4% each, as trading in Korean markets resumed after holidays. For SK Hynix, media reports of a potential listing of its US subsidiary added to worries over the firm’s complex ownership structure. The Kospi lost about 2%. Tech stocks also slumped in China, dragging the CSI 300 Index to a one-year low. Shares of semiconductor firms slid following a report that the nation may allow local firms such as Alibaba to buy Nvidia’s new chips. Meanwhile, shares of optical-component makers declined after a proposed US bill targeted Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink. “Asian markets start on the back foot given the gap higher in global oil prices to kick off the week,” said Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com. “Focus will turn to US macroeconomic fundamentals and Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations as the week unfolds.” In FX, USD/JPY was knocked lower after a warning from Japan’s top currency official. It’s been an ugly session for precious metals with spot gold and silver under relentless pressure, lower by 3.3% and 5% respectively. In rates, US bonds are getting sold across the curve. The 10-yea…